On Thursday, President Trump unveiled a carefully calibrated bilateral trade agreement with Vietnam, signaling a strategic shift in U.S. tariff policy. Under the deal:

• Most Vietnamese imports will face a 20% tariff, down sharply from the temporary 46% applied in April.

• A punitive 40% rate will hit goods deemed to have been transshipped via Vietnam after originating in another country—primarily targeting Chinese exports attempting to skirt tariffs.

Trade analysts see this two-tier approach as a blueprint for future U.S. trade strategies: tough on evasion but open to limited cooperation. Sebastian Raedler, Bank of America’s head of European equity strategy, underscored that the Vietnam deal signals a broader trend—U.S. tariffs are more likely to escalate than ease, reflecting Washington’s increasingly assertive trade posture.

The agreement also includes a 90-day reprieve before full tariff imposition—giving Vietnamese exporters time to adjust. Observers suggest that it may encourage other emerging markets—like Thailand, Malaysia, or India—to pursue similar arrangements to secure reduced duty rates.

However, Citi strategists caution that while the 20% tariff offers clarity, it’s still double the expected 10%, and the surprise 40% penalty could ripple through regional supply chains, especially where third-country inputs are common. Retail brands with factories in Vietnam but sourcing from China—such as Nike and Adidas—may face significant cost uncertainties.

Meanwhile, Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, noted that Vietnam’s heavy economic dependence on the U.S. constrained its negotiating power, suggesting that other countries might secure more favorable rates than the 20% imposed on Vietnam, especially if they come to the table from a stronger position.

In short, the deal offers a new U.S. template: moderate tariffs for direct trade partners, steep penalties for evasion—allowing Washington to demonstrate control while encouraging compliance.