1. Ackman’s Warning:

• Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman revealed at the Milken Institute Global Conference that private discussions with Fortune 500 CEOs show declining enthusiasm for Trump’s economic agenda.
• Specific concern: Trump’s recent threats to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell and impose 10% across-the-board tariffs have sparked boardroom anxiety.

2. Data-Driven Skepticism:

• Yale’s CEO Confidence Index shows Trump’s approval among executives dropped 13 points (71% → 58%) since 2024.
• Private surveys indicate 68% of CFOs now delay capital expenditures until post-election clarity emerges.

3. Market Implications:

• Sectors most exposed: Industrials (-3.1% Monday), automakers (Ford -2.4%), and semiconductor firms reliant on Asian supply chains.
• Bond markets react: 10-year Treasury yields spike to 4.5% as investors price in inflationary risks from proposed tariffs.

4. Historical Context:

• Contrast with 2016: Ackman was an early Trump backer, citing deregulation potential. Now cites “whiplash from abrupt policy shifts.”
• Parallels to 2020: Similar CEO doubts preceded Trump’s election loss; current polling shows Biden leading with business donors (+7 pts).